The announcement of Somali ministers is a pointless milestone. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud already distributed power to advisors and envoys upon returning to Villa Somalia. The announcement comes after a trajectory to amass power in the hands of a few.
Mohamud has been on a trajectory to create a two-tier cabinet. Tier one is expected to wheel real power. The other tier will be largely symbolic and meant to project compliance with the notorious 4.5 formula.
The first tier consists of presidential advisors and envoys appointed immediately after May 15th, 2022. This group holds the bulk of real power.
Tier two is the group announced on August 2nd, 2022. This later batch is an emblem of the traditional ministers that usually make up the Prime Minister forum.
It’s imperative to assess and evaluate Mohamud’s trajectory in reaching this milestone. Based on historical precedents, this trajectory projects power struggle and infighting for resources and influence.
Ministers will be able to collect salaries. They will have no real power to accomplish anything meaningful. The shift of power from ministers to presidential advisors and envoys will lead to increase resistance both within and from outside groups.
Somali’s parliament and clan elites often use the 4.5 formula to join the administration as cabinet members. The 4.5 formula was debuted at a Djibouti peace conference. The formula was intended to be a temporary solution to break a political logjam. But it has blossomed into an institution of its own. It has dominated Somalia’s political scene for over 20 years now.
Appointments of ministers based on the 4.5 formula typically bring disappointment and celebration. Those who didn’t make the cut are usually disappointed. The appointees celebrate.
In Hassan Sheikh Mohamud returned to Villa Somalia, both groups are disappointed. The latest disappointment is twofold.
First, there are simply limited posts to appoint. The vetting process was rooted in sufficient credence around Mohamud.
A natural derivative is that everyone who didn’t get picked is up in arms. It might appear to be a schoolyard play but it’s very true of politics.
Historically, excluded individuals reorganize themselves in a foreign capital. The capital city of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, used to be a prime destination. Ethiopia has scaled back sponsorship opposing groups recent. Nairobi, Kenya, has emerged as an alternative albeit unlikely to host meaningful opposition while Mohamud is at the helm. Thus, the destination for many groups is to be determined.
Every administration in Somalia faced the wrath of the 4.5 formula. Abdullahi Ahmed Yusuf was once asked about the rationale for a government with over 90 Ministers and deputies. He famously retorted “it’s all a lie.” Yusuf gave a rhetorical response that implied many ministers were due to the 4.5 formula pressures.
Yusuf was under no illusion. He was unequivocal that power was in the presidency. Even then, complaints of failures to comply with the 4.5 formula intensified, and opposition to his leadership led to his early exit.
Mohamud is not expected to resign early. However, he is not immune to the pressures of the 4.5 formula.
The 4.5 ministers will likely enter a power struggle with presidential advisors and envoys immediately. For example, since his appointment, the drought envoy combined responsibilities typically found in the domains of humanitarian and natural disaster response, some components of the foreign minister, and national planning portfolios. Anyone appointed to any of these posts will be on a collision course with him.
The prime minister himself appointed an advisor on foreign affairs. One doesn’t have to be a political genius to anticipate a power struggle between this advisor and the foreign minister appointee. Political appointees with an overlap of responsibilities almost always lead to a power struggle.
The envoy on foreign debt relief is similarly on a collision course with the finance minister. Collision might be more severe since this envoy is a former prime minister and presidential candidate who earned sizable support in parliament.
There will be long unproductive meetings among advisors, envoys, 4.5 ministers, and other staff in a herculean effort to delineate roles and responsibilities. The outcome will be more meetings and time spent unproductively.
This is a common occurrence in even advanced democracies in both government and private sector despite awareness and consciousness to mitigate. It’s more pervasive in Somali politics. Overlaps and dotted lines in a highly politically charged environment are recipes for organizational gridlock.
Many years ago, I met Ali Khalif Galaydh who was appointed to Prime Minister at the conclusion of the Arta Peace Conference in Djibouti. We met at the University of Minnesota Twin Cities campus where he came to teach leadership after he was dismissed in a vote of confidence by the Somali parliament.
I asked him about the most ineffective political culture that handicapped the ability of the ministers he led. He told me it was nonstop meetings. He said people in Somali government met 18 hours a day. This left only six hours for sleep, eating, and other personal errands.
There has not been an improvement or any institutional progress to address the culture of meeting nonstop since Ali Khalif Galaydh. The only difference is personnel swaps which fix nothing.
Mohamud’s appointment of advisors and envoys immediately after returning to Villa Somalia usurps power typically vested in a group of ministers based on the notorious 4.5 formula. This formula has become an institution of its own that Somalis use to share power. The wrath of the formula spares no one. Infighting, friction, and internal power struggle are all on the menu.
Mohamud’s gimmick to strip power from ministers appointed based on the notorious 4.5 formula does nothing to address the problem. It only makes things worst.
Mohamud’s second four years term is expected to adjourn as same as the first. This time it has political turmoil accelerators. Long meetings, perhaps longer than 18 hours, to mitigate the organizational two-tier cabinet system are in the offing.
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Author is a Technology Entrepreneur and long time civic leader. He tweets @fuguni. Follow him for more in-depth analysis.
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