The death of Elder Guud Cilmi Hagar is a watershed moment in Somalia’s renewed fighting. Hagar died in an Al Shabaab counterattack in Moqokori less than a week after the town was freed by a combination of the Somali National Army (SNA) and clan militia. The passing of Hagar and other notables reveals the country is on the wrong war strategy.
Moqokori has been one of the deadliest sites. Nearly 400 people died in the fight to control the town. Among the casualties were 74 SNA members and 56 clan militia. Hundreds more were wounded.
The fight for Moqokori followed a recent pattern for Somalia. The army and allied militia apply overwhelming firepower to an area. Insurgents retreat often blending back into the local population. The army moves on to other areas and asks the local militia to stay on guard.
This is almost always followed by an insurgent counterattack. The local militia is often overwhelmed. Some are killed. Some are captured and switch sides to join the insurgency.
The strategy is deeply flawed. It is one tried and tested in other countries including Iraq and Afghanistan. It is simply an ineffective approach.
In addition to his commitment to the community, the passing of Elder Hagar symbolizes the haphazard nature of the government’s approach. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and his National Security Advisor Hussein Sheikh-Ali are the flag bearers in this fiasco.
Hussein Sheikh-Ali is the brainchild, and Mohamud is acting as the lead salesman. Neither man offered a coherent and compelling defense thus far.
During the only public event, Hussein Sheikh-Ali failed to provide a coherent defense or sustainability plan. A member of the public reminded Hussein Sheikh-Ali about a similar in the past in Mudug and Galgaduud. Results were limited as SNA and supporting militias seesawed control of towns and villages with insurgents. The questioner asked what is different now.
Hussein Sheikh-Ali said clans are leading the effort, and the government is only in a supportive role. He contended there is also a popular uprising against insurgency.
While the roles and responsibilities are not clear, the government is arming clan militia. Untrained and undisciplined clan militias and SNA are in the same bucket.
Mixing clan militias and SNA is such an egregious, and sinister component. The potential risk of diluting the quality of SNA, including units of Gorgor, the commandos branch trained by Turkey is serious.
Moreover, the truth is that there is no popular uprising. Insurgency lost pockets of subclans in Hiiraan.
The assertion that there is a widespread popular uprise is make-believe. Hussein Sheikh-Ali wished for it, and he appeared to have convinced Mohamud.
Mohamud held a series of meetings with some subclan leaders in trying to build support for the flawed strategy. The idea has been rejected. The fact that his own subclan does not support the strategy serves as an EXHIBIT A.
Mohamud has been pitching the idea to donor nations as well. He held meetings with American cabinet members and other White House staff. He also held meeting with UN staff during annual general assembly meetings. Mohamud made an appearance on CNN International and repeated the same message.
Mohamud politically benefited from territorial gains in Hiiraan. The development helped secure a meeting with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Abiy worries about the group opening a new front in eastern Ethiopia. Despite the seesaw nature of territories in Hiiraan, the turn of events was sufficient to entice Abiy to grant a meeting. Mohamud has been seeking a meeting with Abiy for months.
Mohamud characterized intensified fighting as a politically positive development. However, the negative cost to the country is immense.
The seesawed change of control in places like Moqonkori is a prime example. Each time control swaps, there are new casualties. The casualties including many unreported names with similar stature to that of Elder Hagar, countless clan militia, and members of the SNA are unsustainable. Mohamud must pause and replace Hussein Sheikh-Ali and change direction soon rather than later.
Author is a Technology Entrepreneur and long-time civic leader. He tweets @fuguni. Follow him for more in-depth analysis.
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