Hassan Sheikh Mohamud returned to Villa Somalia, the Somalia Presidential Palace, on May 15th, 2022, for a second nonconsecutive stint. He immediately embarked on a mission to dismantle Somali National Army (SNA).
Mohamud inherited five years of troops build-up from his predecessor. Somalia had 10,000 to 12,0000 battle-ready troops when Mohamud returned to power. Another 5,000 soldiers completed training in Eritrea and were ready for deployment.
Mohamud squandered many of these soldiers. Al Shabaab, the Al Qaida branch in Africa, and hostile clans killed them. Some troops were grotesquely slaughtered when lured into remote villages with little or no ammunition, and requests for air support from America never came.
Others became ghost soldiers. Ghost soldiers are on the payroll but perform no duty.
Mohamud’s preferred method of destruction was to convert well-trained units, mainly by Turkey, into ragtag clan militia. Turkey puts SNA members same training regiments as its own North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member forces.
SNA units were transformed into clan militia in Hiiraan, Galgaduud and Middle Shabelle. SNA units in these states were ordered to report to their clan leaders and lend their military expertise.
One outcome has been that SNA leaders started serving subservient to clan militia leaders with no training in fighting terrorism.
Ranking and file members of SNA sent messages to families and described fighting clan militia and suspected Al Shabaab simultaneously. One young officer told leading a squadron of 36 men, and 10 were killed and 12 wounded shortly after arriving in Middle Shaballe. He attributes the high death rate of SNA to militias from clans that supposedly have been friendly to SNA.
In addition, high-profile SNA leaders were killed under mysterious circumstances.
Many SNA ranking and file requested transfer. Some asked to be transferred to regions where their clan politically dominates. Others demanded to be moved to more neutral locations like Mogadishu. Those whose transfer requests were refused left the SNA force altogether.
The latest episode in dismantling Somali troops is Gedo, a highly politically contested state that borders Kenya and Ethiopia. As a candidate for another term, Mohamud excessively criticized troop placement in border communities such as Beled Hawo and Dolow. He advocated for the free reign of foreign troops from Ethiopia and Kenya instead of SNA.
Mohamud removed a total of 200 troops from Gedo in November 2022. Of these, 80 were police officers, and 120 were military members and National Intelligent and Security Agency(NISA).
An immediate spike followed the removal of the first contingent in attacks from Al Shabaab. NISA leaders in Gedo were targeted. On September 27th, 2022, Abdirashid Sheikh Muhumed was gunned down. He was the NISA Director of Beled Hawo district. On December 9th, 2022, Col. Abdirahman Abdullahi Adan Bakaal was assassinated. Bakaal was head of NISA for the entire Gedo of state. On February 18th, 2023, Mohamed Aweys Ali was assassinated. Ali was commander of the 28th Battalion of SNA in Beled Hawo.
Mohamud continued troop withdrawal from Gedo. He ordered 270 men and their equipment, including six armor carriers to be removed in early February 2023. They were all members of the elite Gorgor commandos trained by Turkey.
The purported reason for the latest troop removal from Gedo is to reinforce other troops fighting Al Shabaab in Hiiraan, Galgaduud, and Middle Shabelle. This is not true.
Gedo is one of the highly contested states in Somalia. Two years ago, I wrote about the political conflict in Gedo in the context of Jubbaland and its relations to the flawed idea of clan federalism.
Somalia government, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Al Shabaab contest for control of Gedo. Gedo has been broadly stable since Gorgor units helped repel militia backed by Kenya in Beled Hawo in 2021.
Gorgor units deployed in Gedo were professionally trained and commanded. The overly toxic clan politics that disbursed troops in Hiiraan, Galgaduud, and Middle Shabelle, did not infiltrate their mission. Troops believed in the assignment of defending the border.
Gedo leadership protested the troop removal order of 270 in January 2023. Disputes over equipment came very contentious. Mohamud created a complete vacuum with troop withdrawal.
Both Ethiopia and Kenya started contingency plans. The two countries started to scramble to revamp affiliated clan militias in Gedo.
Kenya has recently poured in new troops to Kismayo. As a result, Beled Hawo residents anticipate another attack in similar to 2021 repelled by Gorgor units from Ahmed Mohamed Islam(Madoobe) backed by freshly rotated Kenya forces.
Ethiopia has decades-old operational experience in forming and mobilizing clan militia in Gedo. Addis Ababa always maintained contacts in Dolow. Residents in Dolow are reporting Ethiopia is accelerating recruitment for an affiliated militia.
Mohamud disassembled the last units of SNA defending Gedo. They are expected to be the last units in the process of squandering troops. The vacuum created by Mohamud’s troop withdrawal from Gedo is expected to increase clan militias, resulting in more chaos, death, destruction, and displacement.
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