Somalia President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud made the central town of Dhuusamareeb a de facto nation’s capital. The stated purpose is to coordinate “total war” on Al Shabaab.
Nothing could be further from the truth, according to one well-placed analyst in Dhusamareeb who asked not to be identified for fear of his safety. The analyst made an astute observation. He told me no one is sincere about fighting against Al Shabaab. He concluded it was all showbiz.
He gave one stark example. Many sub-clans that Mohamud built the “total war” around have also caught up in the spectacle. They bring weapons for the cameras and put them back in storage when they are turned off.
Many trucks with mounted guns, colloquially known as “Tekniko,” pictures broadcasted on state control media, are barely functional. Some do not have running engines and are towed to the scene for the cameras.
It is an image projection theater, he said. It is also a message for bargaining for more weapons and ammunition from Mohamud.
Mohamud has also hit a political culture brick wall. Clan militias are more concerned about other clan militias instead of Al Shabaab, according to the analyst in Dhuusamareeb.
Some clan militias believe their clan members are fighting on the side of Al Shabaab. One prominent militia leader told the analyst, “We do not want to die on both sides.”
Mohamud alluded to the political culture brick wall in one of his many rants from the podium while in Dhuusamareeb. He framed it as unintentionally aiding Al Shabaab.
Some sub-clan leaders, including his own, outright rejected Mohamud’s appeal to fight Al Shabaab. Others want to make enough spectacle for Mohamud to get money and more weapons. Everyone wants to stockpile for impending clan clashes.
Many sub-clans presumed such clashes are inevitable in Galgaduud. For instance, militia from one of the sub-clans Mohamud heavily recruited from slaughtered five elementary children near Dhabad and Qorof.
Dhabad is a border town in Galgaduud, while Qorof is inside the Somali region of Ethiopia. Mohamud made no serious effort to arrest perpetrators and help prevent future clan clashes while he sat approximately 50 miles in Dhuusamareeb.
Clan militias are gearing up for clashes rooted in this kind of killing and counter-killings. Mohamud’s proliferation of different types of war is less resonating with sub-clans in Galgaduud.
In the meantime, Al Shabaab proceeded with a recently adopted tactic. The group vacated most of the towns and villages Mohamud described while in Dhuusamareeb.
Mohamud mentioned Galhareri and Elbur multiple times. If he was sincere about fighting Al Shabaab, he would have kept battle plans top secret and cut off all possible escape routes. Instead, he rants about battle plans on daily bases in Dhuusamareeb while appointments of bonafide Al Shabaab leaders to powerful positions in government continue in Mogadishu.
Mohamud’s ultimate motivation is to concoct enough narrative to collect monetary from Counter Violent Extremism (CVE) from Western nations like the United States. He continues to pursue CVE dollars despite America committing no more expenditures beyond funding Danab, the counter-terrorism unit it trained and paid the salary for.
In the meantime, Al Shabaab has already pulled weapons and men’s power to the outskirts of both Galhareri and Elbur with plans to counterattack after surviving Somali National Army (SNA) units enter. Then Al Shabaab mounts a counterattack and decimates SNA units.
Al Shabaab often recaptures locations with counterattacks. Runnirgood is Exhibit A of this pattern.
The pattern has been repeated many times in Hiiraan, Middle Shabelle, and Galgaduud during the last year and a half. Sadly, the only tangible outcome has been high SNA casualties.
Sub-clans in Hiiraan, Middle Shabelle, and Galgaduud have caught up with Mohamud’s spectacles. They bring weapons for the cameras and put them into storage when turned off. It is one way of acknowledging Mohamud’s “total war” on Al Shabaab is all showbiz.
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Author is a Technology Entrepreneur and long time civic leader. Follow him @fuguni.
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