Somalia has been an internal armed conflict since 1991. Ethiopia plunged into a similar and perhaps more brutal civil war in 2020.
The two countries have a history of going to war over disputed territories. Ethiopian troops crossed into Somalia numerous times and wreaked havoc.
The latest episode between the countries revolves around Ethiopia’s quest to gain access to the sea. On January 1, 2024, Ethiopia signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with a separatist group in northern Somalia to establish a naval base and build a port outside Somalia’s jurisdiction.
Somalia objected and asserted sovereignty rights. Two rounds of talks mediated by Turkey, which has the same defense pact with both countries, ended without an agreement.
Often, Ethiopia uses clan militias as a vanguard when attacking Somalia. Somalia reciprocated the practice when able.
Neither Ethiopia nor Somalia has the same capacities to meaningfully back clan rebels as the two countries done after 1977-1978 over a disputed region. The current dynamics are entirely different nearly 45 years later.
Today’s dynamics are such that both countries have internal conflicts fueled by external actors. The latest brewing war is an extended proxy with a more devastating impact for East Africa.
Ethiopia was once considered an anchor state for East Africa by America. But in 2018, America gradually started to lose grip of its control in Ethiopia after the dislodged of its key client, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), from power. TPLF ruled the Ethiopia with an iron fist for nearly 30 years.
Other global rivalries, such as China, Turkey, Russia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), moved in and pushed out America. Military hardware, particularly Turkey’s Bayraktar TB2 drones played a decisive role in defeating TPLF rebels trying to return to power.
In Somalia, another consortium of countries is juggling for strategic position to control infrastructure and critical waterways. Among countries wrestling for influence in Somalia are America and Egypt.
America’s stated goal has been to fight Al Shabaab, the East African branch of Al Qaida, and piracy off the Somali coastline. However, the perception of imperial power and fractured nature of Somalia’s politics made it difficult for America to make headway in Somalia.
In 2023, the National Defense Authorization Act(NDAA) initially included language allocating money to build a massive military base in the northern Somalia city of Berbera. The language was later stripped from the public version of the bill, but only when the endeavor contributed to a violent uprising against separatist group who controlled Berbera, and unionists based in Las Anod.
The renewed conflict claimed thousands of lives and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of civilians. The unionists prevailed and pushed the separatists out of many localities.
America has publicly supported Somalia’s assertion of sovereignty over the MOU that Ethiopia entered with the separatists. However, some of America’s allies have tangential strategic objectives.
For example, Egypt, a close ally of America on Middle East affairs, has a long-running dispute with Ethiopia over the Nile River and the building of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam GERD).
Former Egyptian President Anwar Sadad told the New York Times, “We are not going to wait to die of thirst in Egypt. We’ll go to Ethiopia and die there.”
Sadad was responding after Ethiopia leader Mengistu Haile Mariam proposed building a series of dams on the Nile in 1978. Egypt justified its claim based on the 1959 colonial-era treaty with Sudan, which Ethiopia doesn’t recognize.
In 2020, Egypt threatened to bomb the GERD with American-supplied F-16 Fighter Jets unless Ethiopia halted construction. Construction continued with some modifications and at a much slower pace.
In the summer of 2022, Somalia President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud went to Cairo and endorsed Egypt’s claim over the Nile River. This endorsement sent the relationship between Ethiopia and Somalia into a downward spiral.
Somalia’s endorsement of Egypt’s position on the Nile scrapped the tripartite agreement between Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia. The tripartite deal called for cooperation and respect for territorial integrity in East Africa.
At the gathering in Cairo in the summer of 2022, Somalia and Egypt entered several other agreements. One of the agreements was to establish an Egyptian military base in Somalia.
More recently, Egypt has been alarmed by Ethiopia’s quest to access the Red Sea. Egypt’s Air Force Cargo planes were spotted in Mogadishu airport on August 27, 2024.
Local Media reported that more than 10,000 Egyptian troops are expected in Somalia. Of these, 5,000 will be part of the UN-sanctioned peacekeeping mission in Somalia. The remaining 5,000 are expected to be governed by biliteral relationships.
It is unclear where Egyptian troops will be based inside Somalia. Some communities bordering Ethiopia, such as Gedo, Hiiraan, and Galgaduud, have raised objections to hosting Egyptian forces.
Some analysts in Egypt suggested Kismayo, a port city in the Lower Jubba, as the best locality for the base of Egyptian troops. Kenya has large contingent troops as part of the UN-sanctioned mission in Somalia.
America and UEA also maintain some troops in Kismayo to a lesser extent. How many more foreign troops Kismayo can accommodate without friction among countries juggling for influence in Somalia is still being determined.
Ethiopia responded by redeploying its troops from the Northern Command, which has been battling rebels in the Tigray and Ahmara regions, to the eastern region bordering Somalia. Ethiopia also pulled some of the troops operating inside Somalia within its borders.
Based on these maneuvering and counter-maneuvering, the stage is set for a proxy war over broader global strategic objectives. Somalia has the most to lose in the proxy wars brewing in East Africa.
Somalia lacks legitimate political leadership. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamed has been mired in widespread corruption, nepotism, and strategic mishaps due to incompetence, which has led to unpopular and illegitimate political leadership at the top.
Although Somalia needs external allies, the country has forfeited the single most significant ingredient for strength. The attributes above stripped Mohamud of the ability to inspire and galvanize the Somali spirit to repel Ethiopian aggressions, making Somalia vulnerable.
The Somali public generally welcomes Egypt’s support. Egypt has long ties with Somalia in the realm of education and culture. The goodwill built over the years is expected to remain baring scandal(s) in the offing.
Analysts, including this author, are skeptical of Egypt’s ability to deliver a decisive victory over the pending Ethiopian invasion of Somalia. Egypt has no track record of delivering meaningful military support to Somalia.
This time might be different. But steps to build confidence and seal sincere bilateral partnership have not occurred.
For example, Somalis can only go to Egypt with medical and tourism visas. Egypt could demonstrate sincerity by creating more visa categories, including student and business visas.
Egypt is experiencing a boom in infrastructure modernization and real estate boom. Projects such as New Cairo desperately need foreign investors.
Egypt could attract Somalis from around the world, including Somalis in Kenya who is anxious about Gen Z civil unrest. There are many more Somalis who are searching for an alternative place to invest now that Turkey has slowed down or paused projects in Somalia. More economic ties between Egypt and Somalia will likely enhance security strategic objectives.
The proxy wars being staged in Somalia are complex. Many external interests are intertwined, including strategic objectives by global powers and non-state actors.
Ethiopia is dead set on invading Somalia in effort to annex additional land in a quest to gain access to the sea. The stage is set for war between Ethiopia and Somalia, two countries tangled in internal and colonial relic conflict with each other. This time each is acting a proxy for other powers.
Considering the fracture nature and the absence inspirational political leadership, Somalia is vulnerable. Nevertheless, there is a ray opportunity to enhance relationship with at least Egypt, one of the external players in the current proxy war being staged in East Africa.
Author is a Technology Entrepreneur and long time civic leader. Follow him @fuguni.
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